The 2018 All-Overvalued Team
Here is my All-Overvalued Team for 2018. The team is comprised of players I feel you can comfortably pass on at their respective ADP's and make your team stronger in their absence. Enjoy! - P-Tash
ADP’s are based on Fantasy Pros Half PPR Scoring
QB – Deshaun Watson (ADP 36th overall, End of Round 3): As good as Deshaun Watson was last season, we’re talking about a 7 game sample size. And the game log reveals he only played well (we will define well loosely, as over 125 yards passing or over 1 total TD). The 5 games in which he played ‘well’ came against the Patriots, Titans, Chiefs, Browns and Seahawks. Respectively and in that order, those pass defenses ranked 32nd, 28th, 27th, 17th and 6th in 2017. During this 5 game span, Watson averaged over a turnover per game, throwing 7 INT’s (3 against the Seahawks – the only team he played above the 17th ranked Pass Defense). Deshaun Watson should be a top 8 QB this season. Especially with a soft schedule that starts with the Patriots, Titans, Giants, Colts, Cowboys and Bills. But there’s no reason to reach for him at the end of Round 3 before players like Larry Fitzgerald, Juju-Smith Schuster and Zach Ertz have all been drafted. And there’s certainly no way I can expect him to be as good as Tom Brady, Russell Wilson or Drew Brees has been year in and year out at much cheaper ADP’s. Take a position player and grab your QB later.
RB – Devonta Freeman (ADP 20th overall, Middle of Round 2): Hello Devonta, my old friend. I’ve come to bash your ADP again. Carries have dropped from 264 to 227 to 196 over the past 3 years (Tevin Coleman has gone from 87 to 118 to 156). Receptions have dropped from 73 to 54 to 36 over the past 3 years (Coleman has gone from 2 to 31 to 27). Matt Ryan sucks. In a passing league he barely eclipsed 4000 yards last season (4095) and had exactly 20 TDs (while throwing 12 picks). This offense is bad. Tevin Coleman is too involved for Freeman to be a top RB1. Devonta Freeman: Hard Pass. If he slides to round 3 – maybe, but that won’t happen. If you look around the room and can’t find the Devonta Freeman fan – do some quick soul searching and make sure it’s not you.
RB – Joe Mixon (ADP 24th overall, End of Round 2): I don’t dislike Joe Mixon. I dislike his value. And his quarterback. And his head coach. Mixon himself is fine. But I can’t take him at the end of round 2. AJ Green, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, TY Hilton, Adam Thielen. Those are the reasons why I can’t. Joe Mixon cannot be your best RB. The only thing Mixon in that backfield this season is all the cement their offense is going to be stuck in being led by Andy Dalton. Red Rifle has eclipsed 4000 yards just twice in his 7 lackluster years in the NFL. And he’s eclipsed 19 TD’s just twice in the past 4 years (difficult to do when you have one of the best receivers in football in AJ Green). What does a bad offense that can’t move the ball and can’t score points mean? That you’re team is most likely playing from behind and the lead back takes a backseat to the passing game. And that the running back best equipped to catch passes out of the backfield and get your team back from deficits and losing games is going to be on the field. That running back’s name is Gio Bernard. Mixon will improve off last year’s numbers. Jeremy Hill is gone. And Mixon is the guy on early downs. But he averaged a mediocre 3.5 yards per carry and scored just 4 TD and he wasn’t really a bell cow in college either. Leave Mixon on the board and take that elite WR2.
WR- Demaryius Thomas (45th overall, End of Round 4): The post-Peyton Manning results have been bad. Two straight seasons in decline left Demaryius with just 83 catches for 949 yards and 5 TD last season. A decent season by most’s standard. But we’re talking about Demaryius Thomas. Is Case Keenum the answer? He worked wonders for the Vikings last season completing 67.6% of his passes with a 22:7 TD: INT ratio. But Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are young studs and just starting to enter their primes. The season before, Keenum was let go by the Rams after the Rams were one of the worst teams in football offensively and even Todd Gurley looked the worst he ever has. Case Keenum’s success will be based on how well his receivers play around him. And Demaryius looks to be out of gas and uninvolved in the offense. This pre-season while other regulars like Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton have been very involved, Thomas has managed just 3 catches for 18 yards. Factor in Royce Freeman being a focal point in the offense and you can do better at the end of the 4th round. Golden Tate, Juju Smith-Schuster, Chris Hogan and Marvin Jones are all superior options at WR. I’d also much rather draft Lamar Miller or stash Mark Ingram at that ADP. Demaryius has lost a step and hasn’t shown he can elevate the play of his QB yet. Avoid him in the 4th round. “Only winners get wings.” Demaryius is the picked through nachos people leave behind at the bar with a dirty napkin on top.
WR – Allen Robinson (49th Overall, Beginning of Round 5): The NFL’s 32nd ranked passing offense will inevitably be better as Mitch Trubisky enters year 2 and will start right from week 1. But his top WR is Allen Robinson and he comes with some red flags. Robinson has only produced 1 great season in the NFL so far, which was 2015. In 2016 his targets and catches were almost identical but his YPC dropped by 5.4 yards per catch and his TD’s dropped off from 14 to 6. Expecting another season like he had in 2015 is no sure thing, especially since he is coming off a torn ACL injury and learning a whole new system in Chicago. I don’t hate Allen Robinson, honestly. It’s not awful value here. I just think there are much safer options to be had. And I needed a 2nd WR to complete this blog. It was him or Amari Cooper.
TE – Travis Kelce (29th overall, Middle of Round 3): When you draft at the end of round 2 and beginning of Round 3 and you get the itch to take a tight end you need to think long and hard about doing that. My philosophy on tight ends is simple. Gronk is the only league winning tight end. If he is there at the end of Round 2 and you want him – take him. Otherwise you are taking Zach Ertz in Round 4/5, Evan Engram in Round 6 or waiting to see who falls to the late rounds and drafting George Kittle, Kyle Rudolph, Jack Doyle or David Njoku. There are too many good RB’s and WR’s around pick 29 (Hill, Diggs, Thielen, Hilton, Henry, Baldwin, Collins, Drake, Fitzgerald) and you will hurt your overall team reaching for a tight end playing with a first year QB on a run-first offense.
Flex- Kerryon Johnson (63rd overall, beginning of round 6) Kerryon my wayward son. There’ll be peace when you are done. Lay your weary head to rest. Don’t you cry no more. Kerryon’s fantasy owners are destined for tears after he barely played at all with the first stringers in pre-season and the team appears to be ready to lean heavily on LeGarrette Blount in the run game and Theo Riddick in the pass game. Also, last year’s leading rusher, Ameer Abdullah, is still in Detroit. Patricia has experience with LeGarrette Blount and knows firsthand what a battering ram he can be as he barreled in for 18 TD’s just two years ago for the Patriots. This crowded backfield is destined to create many a headache for fantasy owners and give Kerryon Johnson little opportunity to break away from the pack. The upside is there, but so is the potential heartache.