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Week 12 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire FAAB Bids (2020 Fantasy Football)

Updated: Nov 24, 2020


Top 10 Adds

  1. Taysom Hill ($15-$20)

  2. Michael Pittman Jr. ($8-$12)

  3. Curtis Samuel ($8-$12)

  4. James White ($8-$10 or $12-$16 in PPR)

  5. Sterling Shepard ($8-$10)

  6. Allen Lazard ($6-$8)

  7. JK Dobbins ($5-$7)

  8. Nelson Agholor ($6-$8)

  9. Jalen Reagor ($6-$8)

  10. Keke Coutee ($4-$6)


Notes:

  • All adds are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues

  • FAAB recommendations are based on $100 budget and 1/2 Point PPR Leagues

  • Strength of Schedule numbers are based on FFToday.com data (past 5 weeks)

  • Schedule percentages show the difference between the Opponent's Points Allowed to each position and the NFL average. A positive difference indicates a plus matchup. Negative difference is a bad matchup.

  • Handcuff your backs! It’s cuffing season! Failing to do so at this point could cost you your remaining FAAB budget or your season. Lock em’ up!

  • Bids are notably lower at this point as most teams have less than $50 remaining


Quarterbacks

  1. Taysom Hill ($15-$20)

  2. Phillip Rivers ($3-$5)

  3. Derek Carr ($3-$5)

  4. Daniel Jones ($2-$3)


1) Taysom Hill (43%)

  • 18/23 233 78% 0TD + 10/51 2TD

  • 24 fantasy points on the day

  • Sean Payton decided to roll with Hill and he impressed and even ate a W

  • Hill lost a fumble, took three sacks, and threw a sure pick at the goal line that was dropped

  • 12 of the 23 passes were intended for Michael Thomas

  • Beginning of a three-game road trip for the Saints

  • Rushing totals will provide a safe floor. Good chance for a rushing TD every week.

  • Passing will not be elite, but it doesn't have to be and when you have Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas you can get by.

  • Rest of the season is all neutral with one green matchup. I wouldn't count on Brees returning this season, although they say he should be back week 15

  • @DEN -6.4%, @ATL 12.0%, @PHI 2.3%

  • FAAB $15-$20 for QB starved teams


2) Phillip Rivers (26%)

  • 24/36 288 3TD 1INT for 25 fantasy points

  • Finished as the QB6 on the week

  • 17, 25 in last two. Over 25 in 3 of last 5 games

  • Beat the Packers this week. Colts are 7-3

  • Banged up Titans defense on deck after they just lost standout inside linebacker Jayon Brown for the season with an elbow injury. He is one of the better coverage LBs in the game

  • Decent upcoming schedule and emergence of Pittman is a boost to his fantasy value

  • TEN 13.8%, @HOU 7.8%, @LV 3.8%

  • FAAB $3-$5


3) Derek Carr (36%)

  • 23/31 275 3TD 1INT 74% 119.7 QBR for 26 fantasy points

  • 5th most fantasy points amongst QBs this week

  • INT was on desperation throw with 0:28 remaining in the game

  • 19:3 TD:INT on season

  • Was not able to knock off Mahomes and the Chiefs, but he played his best game of the year

  • According to HC John Gruden “He played almost flawless.”

  • His intensity lead to him becoming a meme for his sideline death stare.

  • Over 22 fantasy points in 5/10 games

  • Recent poor performances had more to do with weather and game script

  • Good schedule upcoming

  • @ATL 12.0%, @NYJ 24.8%, IND -6.9%

  • FAAB $3-$5



4) Daniel Jones (28%)

  • 20+ pts in 3/5 last games

  • His week 10 75% completion rate was highest of the year

  • Last two weeks QBR above 90 for first time in his career

  • Two straight games without and INT for the first time this season shows growth

  • 9/64 1TD rushing last game. (35 yard TD run)

  • Over 60 yards rushing in 3 of last 5

  • Bad games in that stretch came twice against Washington top pass rush

  • Upcoming schedule is far less imposing

  • Wash (2nd most sacks), Cin (24th), SEA (10th), AZ (6th)

  • CIN giving up 32.2% more than league average to opposing QBs over the past 5 weeks

  • May be a suitable replacement for Joe Burrow owners

  • @CIN 32.2%, @SEA 35.9%, ARI 18.8%

  • FAAB $1-$2 as a streamer or $2-$4 if you lost Burrow


Drops


Joe Burrow

  • Likely done for the season after suffering a gruesome knee injury


Matthew Stafford (62%)

  • The ceiling is so low for Stafford and his play is too inconsistent for fantasy

  • He contributes very little on the ground to provide a safe floor. Averaging less than 10 rushing yards per game

  • Only 2 games over 300 yards this season

  • Much prefer Taysom Hill, Derek Carr or Rivers over Stafford.

  • HOU 7.8%, @CHI -12.2%, GB -23.2%


Running Back

  1. James White ($8-$10 .5PPR or $12-$16 in PPR)

  2. J.K. Dobbins ($5-$7)

  3. Gus Edwards ($5-$7)

  4. Carlos Hyde ($2-$3)

  5. Kerryon Johnson ($0-$1)


1) James White (40%)

  • 5/19 & 6/64 on 9 targets

  • Burkhead went down with a knee injury and may be out for the season

  • White has been missing from the game plan most weeks this season, but will likely be used more heavily without Burkhead on the field.

  • NE still has Damien Harris and a newly healthy Sony Michel (plus Cam Newton) to worry about

  • May be a low end flex play weekly ROS. Much more valuable in PPR leagues

  • White can be a sneaky flex option when New England is big underdogs, something that will be the case on the road against the Cardinals in Week 12.

  • ARI -30.8%, @LAC 25.7%, @LAR -29.0%

  • FAAB $8-$10 .5PPR or $12-$16 in PPR


2) J.K. Dobbins (63%) (*UPDATE* Dobbins and Ingram have both tested positive for Covid-19)

  • Dobbins is out this week, but had he played he would have been my top add

  • Dobbins' 17 touches were 12 more than Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram had combined.

  • Snap share = Dobbins 63% / Edwards 20% / Ingram 9%

  • First game where all three backs were healthy and one had even a 50% snap share

  • This shows a move to Dobbins (2020 2nd round pick)

  • Dobbins offers by far the most upside for both "real life" and fantasy football for the stretch run.

  • Touch Thursday matchup @PIT. No "red" matchups rest of the way.

  • If he is dropped or is available, scoop him up quietly and stash him on IR. He is a better long term addition then Edwards.

  • @PIT -17.8%, DAL 2.2%, @CLE -8.2%, JAC 10.7%

  • FAAB $5-$7


3) Gus Edwards (28%) (*UPDATE* J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram are out with Covid-19)

  • With his two backfield mates on the sidelines, Edwards will step into a huge workload this week against a tough Steelers team

  • I expect Edwards to receive 12-15 touches with Justice Hill contributing in the passing game

  • Moving forward, Edwards seems to be second in the pecking order behind J.K. Dobbins and over Mark Ingram

  • Dobbins is taking over, but should he go down Edwards would be in a good spot on a run first team. Covid has thrown us a curveball and it's possible Edwards becomes more involved based on his performance this week vs Pittsburgh. I still learn toward Dobbins.

  • For this week and maybe this week only, Gus the Bus is going to roll full steam ahead

  • @PIT -17.8%, DAL 2.2%, @CLE -8.2%

  • FAAB $5-$7


4) Carlos Hyde (46%)

  • 14/79 1TD & 2/3 16 rec

  • Snap share = Hyde 70% / Scarbrough 18% / Dallas 11%

  • Value is dependent on Carson's health (foot injury)

  • Carson has 11 more days to get cleared for Week 12 Monday Night Football vs. Philadelphia.

  • Hyde was 1,000-yard rusher for Houston in 2019, returned Thursday from a strained hamstring. He played for the first time in four games.

  • Hyde is worth a speculative pickup for those needing a RB this week or with a roster spot to gamble. Carson is coming off a foot injury and has a history of injuries.

  • If Carson is out or got hurt again, Hyde vaults to a high end RB2 option

  • @PHI -10.0%, NYG 4.8%, NYJ -17.4%

  • FAAB $2-$3


5) Kerryon Johnson (16%)

  • DeAndre Swift has a concussion and Lions have been very quiet about his condition

  • Possibility he misses week 12 or beyond

  • Houston defense allowing the most rushing yards per attempt (5.2) leaguewide

  • HOU 59.2%, @CHI -17.3%, GB 34.9%

  • FAAB $0-$1


Drops


Mark Ingram

  • As mentioned above, Dobbins seems to be taking over this backfield

  • Ingram has done almost nothing on the season with only two games over 10 fantasy points

  • @PIT -17.8%, DAL 2.2%, @CLE -8.2%


Adrian Peterson

  • Kerryon Johnson took 70% of snaps to only 30% for Peterson

  • Swift is concussed and may miss another week or two, but Peterson does not offer enough upside to use in fantasy

  • 4 straight games under 6 points

  • HOU 59.2%, @CHI -17.3%, GB 34.9%


Wide Receiver

  1. Michael Pittman ($8-$12)

  2. Curtis Samuel ($8-$12)

  3. Sterling Shepard ($8-$10)

  4. Allen Lazard ($6-$8)

  5. Nelson Agholor ($6-$8)

  6. Jalen Reagor ($6-$8)

  7. Keke Coutee ($4-$6)

  8. Tim Patrick ($4-$6)

  9. Russel Gage ($2-$4)

  10. Damiere Byrd ($2-$3)



1) Michael Pittman Jr. (44%)

  • 3/3 66 TD for 14 fantasy points

  • Back to back weeks of 14+

  • 9% target share is concerning, but Pittman looked really good again and score on a long TD

  • Snap share = Pittman 80% / Pascal 61% / Hilton 61%

  • Solid upcoming schedule with no red matchups the rest of the way

  • TEN 21.8%, @HOU 15.7%, @LV 12.0%

  • FAAB $8-$12


2) Curtis Samuel (50%)

  • 8/10 70 1TD

  • 10 targets was a season high

  • Bye week coming up in week 13

  • 14+ points in 4/5 last games

  • Bye in week 13 will leave Samuel well rested and prepared for the fantasy playoffs (14-16)

  • @MIN 17.6%, Bye, DEN -13.0%

  • DEN 8.3%, @GB -24.2%, @WAS -6.7% (fantasy playoffs)

  • Fantasy schedule is not great, but not terrible either.

  • FAAB $8-$12


3) Sterling Shepard (45%)

  • Consistent target in Giants offense that is improving

  • Averaging 7 targets per game over past 4

  • 4 straight games over 7 fantasy points

  • Reliable WR3 or flex play

  • Great matchup this week vs CIN and amazing next 2 games after that

  • @CIN 41.0%, @SEA 38.7%, ARI 46.8%

  • FAAB $8-$10


4) Allen Lazard (42%)

  • 2/4 18

  • Rough first week back was to be expected after missing two months with core muscle surgery

  • Adams 95% / MVS 85% / Lazard 60%

  • MVS cost his team the game with a costly fumble in OT. Could be enough to allow Lazard to seize #2 role again

  • Expectations for Lazard have to be kept in check as his injury was more severe than we thought.

  • CHI -18.2%, PHI -30.0%, @DET -17.4%

  • FAAB $7-$10


5) Nelson Agholor

  • At some point we need to stop ignoring what Nelson Agholor is doing in Las Vegas

  • He has transformed his game and become a big play threat every week

  • Has been boom-or-bust, but with Atlanta on deck followed by the Jets, Agholor looks like a must add WR3

  • Very nice schedule upcoming

  • @ATL 38.6%, @NYJ 15.9%, IND -14.0% (last 5 weeks data)

  • @ATL 37.2%, @NYJ 61.3%, IND -29.0% (last 3 weeks data)

  • FAAB $6-$8


6) Jalen Reagor (28%)

  • Averaging 6 targets over past 3 games

  • Reagor has not scored in 2 weeks and may be due for a score vs SEA

  • Alshon Jeffery (no catches), Travis Fulgham (one catch) and Greg Ward (three catches, nine yards) were non-factors

  • Snap share = Fulgham 96% / Reagor 93% / Ward 68% / Jeffery 7%

  • Jeffery is less of a threat than some thought with season low playing time

  • Safe 6 point floor with huge potential upside

  • Reagor is a rookie and progressing each week. 21st overall pick this year.

  • Prime breakout spot vs a struggling SEA secondary

  • SEA 38.7%, @GB -19.7%, NO 15.9%

  • FAAB $6-$8


7) Keke Coutee (0%)

  • Randall Cobb is likely going to miss the next few games and possibly the rest of the season with a "serious toe injury."

  • Kenny Stills also left the game early with a leg injury

  • 4-6 targets are up for grabs weekly without those guys

  • Coutee stepped in and handled 2 catches on 4 targets and a TD, good for 8 fantasy points

  • Very neutral schedule the rest of the way with one green and zero red matchups

  • @DET -17.4%, IND -14.0%, @CHI -18.2%

  • FAAB $4-$6


8) Tim Patrick (21%)

  • Like Rodney Dangerfield, Tim Patrick can't get no respect

  • 5/8 119 for his 3rd 100+ yard game of the season

  • 61 of his 119 yards came on a meaningless final-play heave that allowed the Broncos to run out the remaining four seconds on the clock

  • Over 10 pts in 5/6 of his last full games played since Sutton went down in week 3

  • Week 7 he left with injury and missed week 8

  • Patrick is reliably mediocre. Reagor has far more upside.

  • NO 15.9%, @KC -21.1% @CAR 4.8%

  • FAAB $4-$6


9) Russel Gage (7%)

  • Julio Jones played sparingly Sunday as he was dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him off the field for much of Sunday's game.

  • Gage benefited, earning 12 of Matt Ryan 's 37 targets for a 32% target share

  • If Jones is out, look for Gage to take advantage vs Las Vegas

  • Raiders are suddenly a high scoring offense with 30+ points scored in each of past three weeks

  • This game could be a shootout with a Vegas over/under of 55.5 (highest projected point total)

  • LV 12.0%, NO 15.9%, @LAC -14.1%

  • FAAB $2-$3


10) Damiere Byrd

  • 6/7 132 TD

  • 3 highest graded WR on the week

  • 4 games with 7 targets or more this season

  • 7+ targets in two straight weeks

  • Byrd cannot be ignored even if he may not provide consistent production

  • Meyers may have more competition for targets moving forward if Byrd develops into a reliable second option

  • Add Byrd in deeper leagues, but know he could burn you until we see more consistency

  • FAAB $1-$2


Drops


Jarvis Landry (79%)

  • Another week and another sub 5 point performance from Landry. Don't hang on to players forever just because of their name value or where they were drafted.

  • It's time to cut bait


Marquise Brown (83%)

  • If you haven't dropped him already, perhaps this week's goose egg will put you over the edge. Rip the band-aid off already.


Tight End

  1. Dalton Schultz ($3-$5)

  2. Jordan Reed ($3-$4)

  3. Jordan Akins ($2-$3)

  4. Robert Tonyan ($1-$2)

  5. Jacob Hollister ($1-$2)


1) Dalton Schultz (21%)

  • Safe floor of about 5 points weekly. You need your TE not to kill you and offer a chance for 10+ points and Schultz can do that.

  • Red-zone target with 8, 7, 6 targets in past 3 games

  • Caught a game-winning TD this week vs MIN

  • Washington has also permitted the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends

  • Great matchup in week 1 of the playoffs

  • WAS -30.7%, @BAL 2.7%, @CIN 111.8%

  • FAAB $3-$5


2) Jordan Reed (15%)

  • Coming off the bye week and should be well rested

  • Next game he will his third back from injury with a week in between to rest

  • 5/6 62 yards and 9 fantasy points in week 10

  • Kittle is out for the year so Reed is likely guaranteed 5 targets weekly with a chance for a more

  • FAAB $3-$4


3) Jordan Akins (2%)

  • Caught 5 of 6 targets for 83 yards, a career high

  • Randall Cobb injury will lead to more work for Akins over the middle

  • Cobb is expected to miss games with a significant toe injury

  • FAAB $2-$3


4) Robert Tonyan (46%)

  • TD dependent option

  • Averaging 4-5 targets per game

  • 1st score in 5 games

  • TD or bust TE2

  • CHI 22.4%, PHI -17.9%, @DET 32.4%

  • FAAB $1-$2


5) Jacob Hollister (0%)

  • Greg Olsen ruptured the plantar fascia in his left foot

  • Olsen was averaging 3-4 targets per game which will likely be split between these two

  • Snap share = Olsen 61% / Dissly 65% / Hollister 20%

  • Will Dissly is going to continue to play a role, but Hollister is the better receiving option

  • @PHI -17.9%, NYG 20.0%, NYJ 46.3%

  • FAAB $1-$2


Drop List


Jared Cook (84%)

  • 3 games under 3 points will kill your squad. He needs to be more involved and with Michael Thomas fully healthy, that doesn't look likely.

  • I would drop Cook for Schultz, Akins or Reed


Defense

  1. Cleveland @ Jacksonville

  2. Rams vs. San Francisco

  3. Green Bay vs. Chicago

  4. Giants @ Cincinnati

  5. Washington @ Dallas



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